Iraq: time for plan B

US-led policy has manifestly failed, and things are getting worse. It's time to leave.
Andrew Murray


August 21, 2006 05:40 PM

The Iraq war has been a massive boost to Osama bin Laden. "It validated so much of what he has said and told Muslims: that the Americans want Arab oil; that the Americans will destroy any Muslim regime that appears to be powerful; the Americans will destroy any country that appears to be a threat to the Israelis; and they're willing to invade any Muslim country if it suits their interests."

Not a Stop the War Coalition press release, as it happens, but the considered opinion of the CIA agent who for 10 years led the team, now disbanded, tasked with finding the al-Qaida leader. Indeed, by now it no longer seems hyperbole to describe the Iraq invasion and occupation as the greatest miscalculation of US policy since Vietnam, and of British policy since the second world war.

While the world's eyes have been fixed on Lebanon, the situation in Iraq has plumbed its lowest depths yet. A report in the New York Times last week highlighted the following developments:

· The number of bomb attacks carried out or attempted by the insurgency in July - 2,625 - was the highest total yet during the war, and the daily average of attacks against US forces is running at twice the rate it was in January.
· A senior Pentagon official asserts that the Iraqi resistance "has more public support and is demonstrably more capable in numbers of people active ... than at any point in time."
· The number of US soldiers wounded in attacks has risen from 287 in January to 518 in July, although better protection has led to a small drop in the number deaths.
· Some 70% of bomb attacks are directed at US or other occupying forces, 20% at Iraqi forces and only 10% at civilians.
· The attempt to subdue Baghdad, launched in June, has failed.
· One source privy to White House thinking is quoted as saying "senior administration officials ... are considering alternatives other than democracy" for Iraq. It has been reported elsewhere that Bush believes that the Maliki government is insufficiently grateful to the US in public.

In other developments, Turkish and Iranian forces are concerting military operations against Iraqi Kurdistan; the possibility of incursions by the Turkish army is growing; and British troops were engaged in a fierce battle with local tribes near Basra last Wednesday. All this before even considering the escalating civil conflict the policies of the US occupation have stimulated.

So, in summary, the resistance to the occupation is stronger than ever - militarily and politically. The political project of a united puppet Iraq with democratic forms may now be abandoned in favour of some more dictatorial "solution" that would certainly fragment the country, and a new conflict around Iraqi Kurdistan is looming. Tony Blair and Nick Cohen must be so proud.

Time, I would think, for plan B. And here is at least a draft of it - peace proposals from two of the resistance groups based in the mainly Sunni centre of the country, courtesy of al-Sabah newspaper. The key points include:

· Set a timetable for the withdrawal of occupying forces.
· Release detainees
· Reconstruct the defence and interior ministries, disarming militias.
· Suspend contracts with foreign companies
· Revise the constitution and hold new elections
· Recognise the legal right to resistance.

Anyone got a better plan?